ADP: US private payrolls rose by 86,000 in October

By Sophie Lindqvist

US private-sector employers added 86,000 jobs in October, according to payroll processor ADP, exceeding economists’ estimate of 69,000 and matching September’s revised 86,000 gain. The company released the report Wednesday, showing continued hiring but not an acceleration from the prior month.

The source describes the October total as “up from” September even though both the revised and current figures are 86,000. That wording does not establish month-over-month acceleration; it shows that October’s increase merely held September’s reported pace after revision.

Does the gain span employer sizes?

ADP’s employer-size breakdown was positive in every category. Companies with 50 to 499 employees added 33,000 jobs, establishments with fewer than 50 added 28,000, and businesses with 500 or more added 24,000. Those figures sum to 85,000, one below the headline; the source does not reconcile that difference and gives no sample size, response rate or revision schedule.

Was compensation part of the story?

ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said: “Employers of all sizes were hiring last month, and our data suggests that job-changers were lured by a combination of bonuses, overtime, and more hours in addition to higher base pay.” She added: “Taken together, earnings growth for these workers hit its fastest pace since March 2024.”

The second statement concerns workers who changed jobs, according to Richardson, and does not establish a wage increase for the whole workforce. ADP supplied no dollar value for base pay, bonuses or overtime.

For an individual weighing a job move, the practical signal is that employers may have combined higher base pay with bonuses, overtime and additional hours, although the report does not identify which occupations or employers offered those terms.

Which sectors created and cut positions?

• Trade, transportation and utilities added 39,000 positions, the largest sector gain.
• Education and health services added 28,000.
• Leisure and hospitality added 19,000.
• Financial activities added 15,000.
• Construction added 13,000.
• Other services added 10,000.
• Professional and business services lost 27,000.
• Natural resources and mining lost 8,000.
• Information lost 2,000.
• Manufacturing lost 1,000.

The six gaining categories account for 124,000 positions and the four losing categories for 38,000, producing the 86,000 net gain.

For an individual candidate, the national numbers point to stronger job-growth conditions in trade, transportation and utilities and weaker conditions in professional and business services; the source does not supply occupation, location or experience-level detail.

What could the Labor Department report change?

The Labor Department will publish its nonfarm payrolls report Friday morning, and the source cautions that its figures can differ notably from ADP’s estimate. Government data are expected to show 65,000 additional positions following an unexpected 29,000-job loss in September, with unemployment holding at 4.2%.

The 21,000-job gap between the ADP figure and the government-data forecast could change the apparent pace of hiring. A 65,000 increase would represent a rebound from September’s loss, but one 21,000 jobs below ADP’s estimate; 4.2% would indicate no change in unemployment.

If Friday’s forecast proves accurate, October would show a return to 65,000-job growth after September’s loss, a smaller increase than ADP’s 86,000, and unemployment unchanged at 4.2%.