AI May Push 11 Million Americans Into New Careers by 2035

McKinsey estimates that roughly 11 million U.S. workers could need to change occupations by 2035 as AI and automation reshape the labor market. Goldman Sachs research adds a harder edge to that number: workers displaced by technology often struggle more than others to land their next job.

The two findings frame a decision millions of Americans may soon face. Consider a hypothetical 60-year-old whose job has just been automated away. He has 30 years of Social Security earnings behind him. His options: retire early on savings, or retrain for a job paying $70,000 a year.

The math on the second option is more attractive than it sounds.

What do five extra working years change?

Social Security calculates benefits from up to 35 years of indexed earnings, using the highest years on record. With only 30 years of covered work, five years of $0 drag the average down. That is the quiet penalty for a shorter career.

Run the rough numbers. Five years of $70,000 spread across the 420 months of a full record raises average monthly earnings by about $833. If his earnings fall in the formula's 32% tier, that extra $833 translates into roughly $267 more per month at full retirement age.

That is about $3,200 a year. Over 20 years, before cost-of-living raises, it approaches $64,000 in additional lifetime benefits.

The raises compound on the larger base. The 2027 cost-of-living adjustment is 3.6%, and a bigger starting check collects a bigger dollar increase every year for life.

One quirk matters here. Social Security indexes older earnings for wage growth, but earnings in or after the year you turn 60 count at face value. A $70,000 paycheck at 62 replaces a zero cleanly — though it may not beat a 1990s year that looked smaller on paper but indexes higher. Workers should compare against the indexed figures.

Even workers with a full 35-year record can gain. Swapping five years at $25,000 for five at $70,000 adds about $171 a month.

Where does a paycheck collide with an early claim?

The costly move is claiming benefits while still drawing that salary. In 2027, people below full retirement age can earn $25,560 before Social Security begins withholding benefits. A $70,000 salary far exceeds that threshold, so much of the check could be withheld. Social Security adjusts the benefit at full retirement age to account for withheld months, but an early claim can still mean a permanently smaller payment.

For anyone born in 1960 or later, full retirement age is 67. Claiming at 62 generally cuts the check by 30%.

The cleaner path: let the salary cover living costs while savings and Social Security stay untouched. Each working year does double duty, replacing a zero while shortening the stretch savings must cover alone. Employer health coverage also bridges the gap to Medicare at 65, when the standard Part B premium is $202.90 a month in 2026.

What should workers check before deciding?

Start with the earnings record, downloadable from an online Social Security account. Count the zero years and the low ones. That shows whether five more working years would meaningfully raise the check or barely move it.

Keep the claiming date separate from the job decision. The work years can end if the new career does not fit, but after one year, claiming early is close to permanent. Marital status, health and the actual record will shape the final numbers, so run them on a real statement before committing — McKinsey's 11 million suggests many will need to.