U.S. Job Growth Slows to 29,000 in September, Missing Forecasts

U.S. employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, less than a third of the 90,000 analysts had projected and a steep step down from 133,000 in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

The September Employment Situation Summary also confirmed that July's hiring was weaker than first believed. The BLS revised that month's tally from 21,000 to -10,000, the first negative monthly print in the series for some time. Combined revisions for July and August shaved 60,000 positions off prior estimates.

The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%, compared with 4.0% when President Donald Trump returned to office and a recent peak of 4.5% in November.

Is wage growth still keeping up with inflation?

Nominal wage growth came in at 3.0% over the past 12 months, trailing the 3.4% annual inflation rate. Economist Heather Long wrote on X that the gap has effectively erased real wage gains. For candidates weighing counteroffers, the practical effect is straightforward: a 3% raise now buys less than it did six months ago.

Which sectors added jobs — and which didn't?

The BLS said sector-level employment "changed little over the month," but the underlying detail is uneven:

• Health care: +17,000 (12-month monthly average: 33,000)
• Construction: +11,000
• Manufacturing: +9,000
• Financial activities: -7,000

Financial activities have shed 129,000 roles since their May peak, with 90,000 concentrated in insurance carriers and related activities.

What are employers telling us about the slowdown?

ManpowerGroup North America president Ger Doyle framed the print as a signal of growing caution. "Today's report points to greater caution among employers," Doyle said. "Even in a softer market, demand persists for selected skills and capabilities, creating a growing distinction between roles tied to strategic priorities and those dependent on broader workforce expansion."

Vanguard senior economist Adam Schickling struck a similar note. "The labor market remains resilient, but it is not accelerating," he wrote. "It has not deteriorated sharply, but there is also little evidence that it has meaningfully strengthened."

Will the Fed hold rates at its next meeting?

The report arrives as the final BLS release before November's midterm elections and strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to remain on hold. The central bank raised rates for the first time since 2023 in mid-September, and CME FedWatch data show the odds of another hike at the next meeting have eased from 64% a week earlier.

For job seekers, the practical read is direct: openings tied to strategic priorities — health care delivery, infrastructure, and skilled manufacturing — remain active, while broad-based hiring is slowing. With the next BLS release due in early November, candidates in insurance and financial services should plan for a tighter market through year-end.