Up to 70% of Gulf Migrant Jobs at Risk From AI and Policy Shifts

Up to seven out of 10 jobs traditionally filled by migrant workers in the Gulf could be affected by artificial intelligence and changing labour policies, economists warned at a two-day international conference in Lahore. For a country like Pakistan, whose workers dominate that corridor, the number is not abstract — it's a direct hit to the pipeline behind remittance inflows.

The warning came at the Fourth International Conference, "Future Drivers of International Migration from Asia," organised by the Centre on International Migration, Remittances and Diaspora (CIMRAD) at the Lahore School of Economics, with scholars from Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, the Philippines and Sri Lanka.

What did economists say about the Gulf corridor?

Dr Nasir Iqbal of the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) said 2026 had fundamentally reshaped the migration landscape: conflict and the rapid rise of AI are changing how Gulf states select migrant workers, with greater emphasis on skills, occupations and migration pathways. Sending countries, he added, are becoming active partners in screening and preparing workers — a shift that could benefit both sides.

His sharpest caution: remittances still dominate the policy debate, but current inflows may hide a future decline in overseas employment opportunities. In plain words, today's healthy numbers say nothing about whether the jobs exist tomorrow.

Francoise De Bel-Air, Senior Fellow at the Gulf Labour Markets, Migration and Population (GLMM) programme, drew the same dividing line from the other direction: opportunities are growing for skilled professionals across North America, Europe and the Gulf, while traditional routes for low- and semi-skilled workers face increasing restrictions.

How resilient is the Asia-Gulf system?

Froilan Malit, an Asia-Middle East labour migration specialist, called the Asia-Gulf corridor the most resilient labour migration system in the Global South. But he argued that skill recognition systems between regions need further study and should be built into foreign policy frameworks for South-South labour migration.

Marco Mogiani of the International Centre for Migration Policy Development pointed to Europe as a growing filter: evolving EU policies — stricter border controls, biometric surveillance and return measures — have influenced migration patterns from Pakistan and Bangladesh. The discussion also covered both countries' anti-smuggling and migration policies and their effect on routes, departures and migrant casualties.

Dr Fareeha Zafar of the Lahore School of Economics identified political instability, economic insecurity, unemployment and limited access to quality education as the main drivers of irregular migration from Asia. Women, she noted, face greater vulnerabilities along irregular transit routes, including the risk of human trafficking.

How dependent are these economies on migration?

Country studies put numbers on the exposure:

• Nepal: remittances contribute about 33% of GDP, Dr Richa Shivakoti reported, driven by unemployment, political and economic uncertainty, climate-related disasters and a growing culture of migration among young people.
• The Philippines: limited decent jobs at home and steady overseas demand keep workers moving, said Dr Maruja MB Asis, who flagged the feminisation and diversification of labour migration and named ageing populations, declining fertility and digitalisation as emerging factors.
• Pakistan: migration shows both continuity and change — traditional labour migration to GCC states continues alongside growing skilled migration to Western countries, with economic instability, pro-migration government policy and remittances as key drivers, and skill mismatches and geopolitical conflicts as the challenges.

What happens next?

Speakers said migration pressures in countries such as Pakistan and Nepal will likely stay high because of demographic shifts and limited domestic opportunities, and they urged researchers to take a forward-looking view of evolving global skills needs and the development priorities of both sending and receiving countries.