US Economy Added 165,000 Jobs in October, Nearly Triple Forecasts

The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October — nearly triple the roughly 60,000 that analysts expected — and the unemployment rate slipped back to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' report released Friday.

That's the strongest headline of the month, but it's not the whole story. Revisions to the August and September reports added another 84,000 jobs on top of what was previously counted, meaning the labor market was stronger over the summer than first reported.

"The report was undeniably strong," Ariane Curtis, senior North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in an investor note, pointing out that nearly all of the broad-based gains came from the private sector.

Where the jobs actually landed

Professional and business services led October's gains with 70,000 new positions — a striking acceleration for a sector that had averaged just 15,000 per month before. Healthcare added 42,000 jobs, manufacturing picked up 19,000, and leisure netted 19,000.

The gains weren't evenly spread, though. Construction added only 13,000 positions and financial activities 15,000. In ADP's private-sector read, manufacturing actually lost 1,000 jobs while education and health services gained 28,000.

The takeaway: if you work in business services or healthcare, your sector is hiring at well above its recent pace.

What private payroll data shows

Payroll processor ADP reported 86,000 private-sector jobs added in October, about 10,000 above the consensus estimate. The gap between ADP's figure and the BLS number is wide, and Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, is blunt about it: "Only revisions in the future will reconcile it one way or another," he wrote.

For individual workers, ADP's wage data may matter more than the headcount. Pay growth hit its fastest pace since March 2024, and people who switched jobs saw wages jump 4.8% — job-hopping is paying again.

"Employers of all sizes were hiring last month, and our data suggest that job-changers were lured by a combination of bonuses, overtime and more hours in addition to higher base pay," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said.

Small firms are carrying the hiring

ADP's gains split fairly evenly among small, mid-sized and large companies, but experts noted that since mid-2025, smaller firms have accounted for more than half of all job gains.

The National Federation of Independent Business backs that up: 18% of small-business respondents said they plan to create jobs. "In a reversal from last month, hiring and compensation picked up for small business owners in October," NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg said. "The desire to create new jobs and increase wages is there, but the challenges of finding qualified workers remains a persistent barrier for Main Street."

Is this a 'no hire, no fire' economy?

Not quite. The September JOLTS report showed a notable increase in job openings after August's decline, with openings rising in manufacturing, state and local government, and business services — though JOLTS runs a month behind the other reports. The flat firing rate and steady unemployment claims do reinforce a cautious "no hire, no fire" backdrop, but October's numbers lean clearly toward the hiring side.

With revisions still ahead, October's report looks like evidence the labor market is holding firm rather than softening.