US Jobs Report Today: Economists See Payrolls at 100K

The September US jobs report lands today, and Danske Bank expects a hot one: nonfarm payrolls at +100,000, unemployment falling to 4.0% from 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month-on-month.

The Danish bank's forecast rests on a run of firm labour-market data released in recent days. Continuing jobless claims fell to 1.701 million on Thursday, below the 1.725 million consensus, while new claims came in at 197,000 against an expected 200,000. Continuing claims now sit at their lowest level since early 2023 — a signal, Danske's research team argues, that the US labour market is tight.

Not every indicator points the same way. Tuesday's JOLTS report came in softer than expected. But Danske Bank weighs that against stronger signals from other measures: ADP's weekly pulse and the PMI employment index both pointed to solid September job growth. Low labour-force participation and sustained job creation, the bank says, support a further drop in the unemployment rate.

What this means for your position

For job seekers, the data sketch a market where leverage still favours employed workers. Unemployment claims at two-year lows mean laid-off workers are finding new jobs quickly rather than accumulating on benefit rolls. A falling unemployment rate alongside subdued participation suggests employers are competing for a limited pool of available workers — a setup that typically supports wage growth, which Danske expects to show as 0.3% m/m in today's report. Candidates in sectors driving the hiring, rather than those cutting, hold the strongest hand.

The macro backdrop complicates the picture for rate-sensitive hiring. The September ISM survey slipped to 54.5 from an expected 55.0, though it remains solidly in expansionary territory. More notably, the ISM price index jumped to 77.9 against a 72.3 consensus — an inflation signal that keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Philip Jefferson, a permanent voter, echoed New York Fed President John Williams's Tuesday message that the Fed can take more time before its next rate move. Markets cut the probability of an October rate hike below 30%, from roughly 35% before his remarks.

For employers, that means borrowing costs stay elevated for longer. For workers in industries that depend on credit — construction, real estate, smaller businesses generally — hiring plans may stay conservative even as the aggregate labour market tightens.

The euro-area contrast

The euro area offers a different picture. August unemployment held at 6.4% for the seventh consecutive month, an aggregate so stable it conceals divergence beneath: German unemployment is drifting marginally upward, while French unemployment has started falling again after last year's rise. September flash HICP inflation, also due today, is expected to rise to 3.6% year-on-year from 3.2%, with core inflation edging up to 2.5% from 2.4% — driven mainly by higher energy prices, with limited spillover to core so far.

Today's payroll number, and any revision to August's figures, will determine whether the "hot" labour-market thesis holds — and how much room the Fed has to keep waiting.