World Bank: Kosovo Reforms Could Unlock $1.5 Billion, 87,000 Jobs

Kosovo could attract US$1.2–1.5 billion in private investment and create 61,000–87,000 direct and indirect jobs over the next 5 to 10 years, according to a World Bank Group report released on October 29, 2026. The figure is not a forecast. It is a conditional estimate, contingent on targeted policy reforms in three sub-sectors the report identifies as Kosovo's highest-return opportunities.

The Country Private Sector Diagnostic (CPSD) names those sub-sectors explicitly: utility-scale solar and wind electricity generation, business services, and building components manufacturing. The report's core argument is methodological as much as economic. Removing barriers in selected markets, it says, will mobilize more investment and better-paid work than broad, non-targeted policy changes.

What does the energy number mean in practice?

The renewable energy chapter carries the largest single figure. Reforms in utility-scale solar and wind could mobilize an estimated US$1.0 billion in private investment by 2035 and create 8,300 jobs. They could also cut emissions equivalent to roughly 24% of Kosovo's annual CO2 output.

The timeline is anchored to an official target. Kosovo aims to raise renewables to 63% of installed electricity generation capacity by 2031, up from 23% in 2024. That is nearly a tripling in seven years.

Investor confidence, the report argues, depends on clarity about electricity purchasing arrangements. The CPSD recommends two priority actions:

• Adopting a multi-year auction schedule for renewable capacity.
• Operationalizing liquidity guarantees for KOSTT, the transmission system operator, under Kosovo's 2025 Rule on the Renewable Energy Support Mechanism.

Where are the most jobs?

Business services hold the largest employment potential in the diagnostic. The sector has built strong momentum over the past decade, driven by rising European demand for outsourcing and digital services, plus digitalization and cost-quality advantages. It employs a young workforce and pays comparatively high wages.

The constraints are equally concrete: labor regulations, skills shortages, regulatory barriers, and unreliable electricity. The report proposes narrow, policy-focused fixes rather than overhaul:

• Clearer requirements for remote and hybrid work contracts.
• A standardized labor inspection checklist.
• Legal recognition of e-signatures for private commercial contracts.

Implement those recommendations, the CPSD estimates, and the sector could attract US$68–177 million in new investment and generate 32,000 to 46,000 jobs. Put differently, this single sector could account for roughly half to three-quarters of the report's total job projection.

What about manufacturing?

Building components manufacturing forms the third pillar. The report links its potential to domestic construction demand, growing European appetite for energy-efficient building products, and an established but underused export base. Policy-induced distortions and market failures raise operating costs and discourage expansion, the diagnostic finds. The available excerpt does not provide complete job or investment figures for this sector.

What does this change for a worker in Kosovo?

For individuals, the report translates into a market position question. If the reforms land, the better-paid openings concentrate in two places: a business-services sector already paying above-average wages to young workers, and a renewables build-out needing 8,300 workers by 2035. Skills shortages are named as a live constraint in business services, which makes training and workforce readiness the practical lever for anyone positioning for these jobs.

World Bank Group Country Manager for Kosovo and North Macedonia Carole Megevand framed the diagnostic's purpose directly: the CPSD helps Kosovo prioritize actions to boost private sector growth while advancing broader development goals. The report connects each reform package to expected employment and emissions impacts, placing private sector development inside Kosovo's energy transition and climate resilience agenda.

The report does not announce grant funding. Its value for donors, NGOs and civil society lies in the mapping: which regulatory frictions, in which sectors, matter most for measurable job creation over the medium term.

Kosovo's government now holds a costed reform agenda. The next signal to watch is whether the 2025 Rule's liquidity guarantees for KOSTT move from paper to operation, the step the World Bank identifies as decisive for unlocking the US$1.0 billion renewable pipeline.