AI Could Push 11 Million US Workers Into New Careers by 2035

Roughly 11 million US workers — about 6.5% of the current labor force — may need to move into entirely different occupations by 2035 because of automation and artificial intelligence adoption, according to a McKinsey Global Institute report released Tuesday.

The consultancy's base estimate breaks down into two offsetting forces: automation could reduce labor demand by 36 million jobs over the next nine years, while growth in AI-related fields and the broader economy could generate demand for 40 million jobs. The arithmetic points to net job creation, not loss — but with a catch.

"While social media abounds with dire predictions about the impact of AI on labor, the United States is likely to have more jobs available in 2035 than today, but with fewer workers because the population is aging," the report states. McKinsey researchers describe the shift as potentially "the largest and most sustained workforce transformation in US history."

Who actually has to switch

The report's sector-level detail matters for anyone weighing their position. Of the 36 million workers exposed to automation-driven demand declines, about 25 million should be able to stay in their current occupations, because growth within their industries should absorb the automation impact. That leaves 11 million people facing a forced occupational switch.

"The remaining 11 million may need to switch occupations entirely," researchers wrote. "The next decade's challenge is mobility, not scarcity."

For an individual worker, the distinction is practical. If your occupation sits in a growing industry, automation is more likely to reshape tasks than eliminate your role. If your occupation is shrinking and your industry is not expanding fast enough to offset it, the McKinsey data suggests planning a transition now rather than waiting for the displacement to materialize.

The transformation is unfolding against an already unusual labor backdrop. Baby Boomers are retiring, net immigration is slowing, and exogenous shocks continue to ripple through the economy. For two years running, the job market has operated in a "low-hire, low-fire" state — a lethargic turnover environment with opportunities for the few, not the many.

Openings fall, quits stay depressed

A separate Bureau of Labor Statistics report released the same day underscored how little churn remains in the market. Job openings, a closely watched measure of worker demand, fell to a five-month low at the end of August. The voluntary quits rate, a gauge of worker confidence, sat near a six-year low. Layoffs shrank for a second consecutive month.

Hiring has improved from last year's historically weak pace — employment gains have picked up to 80,000 per month versus sub-10,000 in 2025 — but they remain below historical averages, according to BLS data.

"Sluggish hiring means that workers feel stuck," Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor, told CNN. "And that means that frustration and anxiety continue to build without a healthy outlet for it."

That anxiety is measurable. In September, Glassdoor's Employee Confidence Index, a 10-year-old gauge, fell to a record low — its third such nadir this year — as workers grew more worried about job security, economic uncertainty, and AI.

Confidence indexes slide

Broader sentiment readings weakened in parallel. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index, which weighs Americans' assessments of both current and future economic conditions, fell 6.7 points to 81.9, its lowest level in 12 years, as higher gas prices and uncertainty surrounding the war in Iran and global trade relations weighed on outlooks.

The University of Michigan's sentiment survey, which leans more heavily on personal household finances and the impact of inflation, showed a 7-point decline from August to September — the second-lowest reading on record. The gap between the two indexes reflects how heavily labor market conditions weigh on the Conference Board's measure.

"Consumers were more downbeat about labor market conditions in September, as the low hiring rate weighed on perceptions of job availability," Grace Zwemmer, US economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note Tuesday. "Despite this being a challenging environment for those currently unemployed, the labor market is roughly in balance, with a slow pace of labor force growth aligning with weaker payroll gains."

The official September jobs report arrives Friday morning. Economists polled by FactSet expect employment growth slowed to 95,000 added jobs, down from 162,000 in August, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%.